No one can predict the future but here’s an interesting thought: how long will it be before MySpaces becomes a Facebook Application? Take a look at this graph from Alexa.com:
So what went so wrong for MySpace? Firstly, Facebook’s friend network is secure. Anyone could view your MySpace profile. There’s no wonder Facebook are so concerned about privacy. It is made up of trusted, real-world connections. Users have control over the information that you choose to share. Facebook is trusted, at least in comparison to the demand for the service they offer. Based on your recent interactions on the site, an algorithm only displays things that Facebook thinks you’re interested in. MySpace became a scramble for friends and you had no control over who could see your profile. Facebook was built around existing networks rather than a race to accumulate the most online friends. Friends who you met online don’t draw users back in as readily. Connecting with your real-world network does.
Since Newscorp’s pump-and-dump, MySpace has found a Niche in music. The next step for MySpace to avoid obsolescence could be to reposition themselves as a Facebook application, most likely through Facebook Connect or Open Graph. This strategy could have already begun with their acquisition of the most successful Facebook application, iLike, that just so happens to be music-related.
(Please email me if you’d like to start a pool on how long it will be until MySpace becomes a Facebook app.)