No one can predict the future but here’s an interesting thought: how long will it be before MySpaces becomes a Facebook Application?  Take a look at this graph from Alexa.com:

MySpace v. Facebook Traffic

So what went so wrong for MySpace?  Firstly, Facebook’s friend network is secure. Anyone could view your MySpace profile.  There’s no wonder Facebook are so concerned about privacy.  It is made up of trusted, real-world connections.  Users have control over the information that you choose to share.  Facebook is trusted, at least in comparison to the demand for the service they offer.  Based on your recent interactions on the site, an algorithm only displays things that Facebook thinks you’re interested in.  MySpace became a scramble for friends and you had no control over who could see your profile.  Facebook was built around existing networks rather than a race to accumulate the most online friends.  Friends who you met online don’t draw users back in as readily.  Connecting with your real-world network does.

Since Newscorp’s pump-and-dump, MySpace has found a Niche in music. The next step for MySpace to avoid obsolescence could be to reposition themselves as a Facebook application, most likely through Facebook Connect or Open Graph.  This strategy could have already begun with their acquisition of the most successful Facebook application, iLike, that just so happens to be music-related.

(Please email me if you’d like to start a pool on how long it will be until MySpace becomes a Facebook app.)

I often find people asking me whether I think Facebook is just another flash in the pan. Friendster patented the social networking concept but have largely faded away. Having purchased Myspace for $580 million in 2006, Newscorp investors have already seen huge returns from a $900 million ad deal with Google. MySpace is now fading off to it’s own niche as a platform for music and other performance arts.

Without doubt, Facebook’s strength is in its reliance on the ‘friend network’. We trust our offline friends and contacts. The friend network helps the site to grow and it’s gravity is not stopping with consistent growth outside of North America. Just have a look at the graph from Alexa.

MySpace is the red line headed south to join Friendster, Bebo and Orkut.

The scale and reach of Facebook blew my mind the first time I typed ‘facebook.com’ into Alexa.com. Nearly 29% of all Internet traffic goes to Facebook. That grew at 25% last QUARTER!

From Facebook’s developer roadmap that the company plans to implement in Q2 2010:

“The Open Graph API will allow any page on the Web to have all the features of a Facebook Page – users will be able to become a Fan of the page, it will show up on that user’s profile and in search results, and that page will be able to publish stories to the stream of its fans.”

Facebook is positioning itself to become the center of the individual’s (online) universe – if it’s not already. At least for the foreseeable future, it looks like Facebook is here to stay.